Endpoints in Rare Disease Clinical Trials

Author: 
Dr Karan Kanhai
April 7, 2026
Est. Reading: 5 minutes

Contents

The Beginning of the End—or the End of the Beginning?

In rare diseases, as in more common conditions, regulatory approval requires clear evidence of clinical benefit from a therapy, as defined by agencies such as the European Medicines Agency and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration [1,2]. To demonstrate such benefit, clinical trials in rare diseases rely heavily on endpoints that can unambiguously show whether one therapy outperforms another, for example improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis trials with nintedanib [3] or reduction in spleen volume in Gaucher disease [4].

How Clinical Benefit Is Measured in Rare Disease Trials

How do we assess whether an investigational drug truly benefits patients?

First, we must define what constitutes “benefit,”

Such as improved survival, reduced symptom burden, or better functional outcomes, for example increased six-minute walk distance in pulmonary arterial hypertension [5] or reduced frequency of vaso-occlusive crises in sickle cell disease with crizanlizumab [6]. Demonstrating such benefit through robust and reproducible evidence is the cornerstone of clinical development. However, statistical power is strongly influenced by sample size, and in rare diseases patient numbers are inherently limited, as seen in ultra-rare conditions such as Niemann–Pick disease type C [7]. This leads to the first major challenge: identifying and recruiting patients requires significant effort, including natural history studies and patient registries [8].

A second challenge lies in selecting appropriate endpoints.

Traditional endpoints such as overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS), commonly used in oncology (e.g., pembrolizumab trials within the KEYNOTE clinical trial program), are often not feasible or informative in rare diseases due to slow disease progression, heterogeneity, or limited understanding of disease biology [9,10]. In many rare diseases, there is also no established standard-of-care comparator, as seen historically in spinal muscular atrophy prior to disease-modifying therapies such as nusinersen [11]. As a result, clinical trials may rely on external controls, historical cohorts, or consensus-defined standards of care to contextualize treatment effects [12].

Thirdly rare diseases lack clearly defined treatment goals, necessitating the development of novel, disease-specific endpoints.

These may include composite endpoints, functional scales, or biomarker-based surrogates, such as the NPC Clinical Severity Scale in Niemann–Pick disease type C [13] or dystrophin expression levels in Duchenne muscular dystrophy trials [14]. In oncology rare diseases such as neuroblastoma, endpoint development has also required adaptation, with composite measures such as event-free survival (EFS), minimal residual disease (MRD), and imaging-based response criteria (e.g., MIBG scoring systems) being used to better capture clinically meaningful outcomes in heterogeneous and aggressive disease settings [19,20]. Increasingly, regulators accept such innovative endpoints when they are well-validated and clinically meaningful, as illustrated by the approval of eteplirsen based on surrogate biomarker data [15].

An additional layer of complexity in rare disease trials lies in their methodological and interpretative challenges.

The need to develop novel endpoints, combined with statistical approaches adapted to very small patient populations, often results in datasets that are less intuitive and more difficult to interpret compared to traditional large-scale trials [8,9]. For example, Bayesian statistical methods or adaptive trial designs are frequently employed to maximise information from limited sample sizes, but these approaches may be less familiar to regulators and clinicians, potentially leading to increased scrutiny during regulatory review [10,12]. Furthermore, rare disease trials are often designed using external controls, single-arm studies, or surrogate endpoints, which differ from the conventional randomised controlled trial paradigm and may raise questions regarding robustness and generalisability of the findings [2,12].

In addition, many rare diseases are characterised by slow progression and high inter-patient variability, meaning that measurable treatment effects may appear modest over the duration of a clinical trial. Small changes in functional scales or biomarker levels—while statistically significant—may be perceived as clinically marginal, making it challenging to clearly demonstrate meaningful patient benefit [9,13]. As a result, both regulators and health technology assessment bodies may question the clinical relevance of observed effects, particularly when long-term outcomes such as survival or irreversible disease modification cannot be readily demonstrated within feasible study timelines [1,2].

The role of patients and their caregivers

A critical and increasingly recognised dimension in rare disease trials is the role of patients and their caregivers in defining what constitutes meaningful benefit. Given the heterogeneity, low prevalence, and often poorly characterised natural history of many rare diseases, patients are uniquely positioned to articulate which outcomes truly matter in daily life, such as preservation of independence, reduction in caregiver burden, or slowing of functional decline. A notable example is Duchenne muscular dystrophy, where patient advocacy groups played a pivotal role during the regulatory review of eteplirsen, contributing patient-reported perspectives that influenced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to grant accelerated approval despite modest dystrophin biomarker data [15,16]. Similarly, in spinal muscular atrophy, caregiver-reported outcomes and functional measures such as motor milestone achievement were critical in demonstrating the value of nusinersen beyond traditional endpoints [11,17].

The Evolving Role of Patients in Defining Success

Rare diseases often carries proportionally greater weight in both regulatory and health technology assessment discussions

In contrast to more common diseases, where large datasets and well-established endpoints dominate decision-making, the patient perspective in rare diseases often carries proportionally greater weight in both regulatory and health technology assessment discussions. This is reflected in initiatives such as patient-focused drug development by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and similar frameworks from the European Medicines Agency, which actively incorporate patient experience data into benefit–risk assessments [2,18]. In ultra-rare conditions, where quantitative endpoints may be limited or difficult to interpret, qualitative insights from patients and caregivers can be decisive in contextualising modest numerical improvements as clinically meaningful changes in quality of life. Consequently, integrating patient-reported outcomes and structured patient input is not only complementary but often essential in establishing the true value of therapies in rare disease settings.

Why Rare Disease Trials Are Different

Reference List

  1. European Medicines Agency. Guideline on Clinical Trials in Small Populations. European Medicines Agency; 2006.
  2. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Rare Diseases: Common Issues in Drug Development. Guidance for Industry. U.S. Food and Drug Administration; 2019.
  3. Richeldi L, et al. Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. New England Journal of Medicine. 2014;370:2071–2082.
  4. Charrow J, et al. The Gaucher Registry: Demographics and Disease Characteristics of 1698 Patients with Gaucher Disease. Archives of Internal Medicine. 2000;160:2835–2843.
  5. Sitbon O, et al. Selexipag for the Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension. New England Journal of Medicine. 2015;373:2522–2533.
  6. Ataga KI, et al. Crizanlizumab for the Prevention of Pain Crises in Sickle Cell Disease. New England Journal of Medicine. 2017;376:429–439.
  7. Patterson MC, et al. Recommendations for the Diagnosis and Management of Niemann–Pick Disease Type C: An Update. Molecular Genetics and Metabolism. 2012;106:330–344.
  8. Griggs RC, et al. Clinical Research for Rare Disease: Opportunities, Challenges, and Solutions. Molecular Genetics and Metabolism. 2009;96:20–26.
  9. Bell SA, et al. A Comparison of Interventional Clinical Trials in Rare versus Non-Rare Diseases: An Analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov. Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases. 2014;9:170.
  10. Kempf L, et al. Challenges of Developing and Conducting Clinical Trials in Rare Disorders. American Journal of Medical Genetics Part A. 2018;176:773–783.
  11. Finkel RS, et al. Nusinersen versus Sham Control in Infantile-Onset Spinal Muscular Atrophy. New England Journal of Medicine. 2017;377:1723–1732.
  12. International Council for Harmonisation (ICH). E10 Choice of Control Group and Related Issues in Clinical Trials. International Council for Harmonisation; 2000.
  13. Yanjanin NM, et al. Linear Clinical Progression, Independent of Age of Onset, in Niemann–Pick Disease Type C. American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics. 2010;153B:132–140.
  14. Mendell JR, et al. Eteplirsen for the Treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: Exon Skipping and Dystrophin Production. Annals of Neurology. 2013;74:637–647.
  15. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Eteplirsen (Exondys 51) Approval Summary. U.S. Food and Drug Administration; 2016.
  16. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patient-Focused Drug Development Meeting and Regulatory Review Documents. U.S. Food and Drug Administration; 2016.
  17. Mercuri E, et al. Nusinersen versus Sham Control in Later-Onset Spinal Muscular Atrophy. New England Journal of Medicine. 2018;378:625–635.
  18. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Patient-Focused Drug Development: Collecting Comprehensive and Representative Input. Guidance for Industry. U.S. Food and Drug Administration; 2020.
  19. Park JR, et al. Children’s Oncology Group’s 2013 Blueprint for Research: Neuroblastoma. Pediatric Blood & Cancer. 2013;60:985–993.
  20. Matthay KK, et al. Neuroblastoma. Nature Reviews Disease Primers. 2016;2:16078.

Author

Written by Dr Karan Kanhai

Dr. Karan Kanhai, MD, PhD, is a physician and medical researcher dedicated to improving the lives of people affected by rare and complex diseases. With more than 20 years of experience in Oncology, Hematology, and orphan-disease drug development, he has worked at the forefront of clinical research to bring new therapies, better diagnostics, and more personalised treatment strategies to patients who often have limited options.

Throughout his career — including senior leadership roles at global pharmaceutical companies — Dr. Kanhai has focused on translating cutting-edge science into meaningful care. He has designed and guided clinical trials for rare cancers and blood disorders, helped shape international treatment programs, and contributed to peer-reviewed research that advances understanding of rare conditions.

Above all, Dr. Kanhai is committed to listening to patients, advocating for their needs, and ensuring that innovation reaches those who need it most. He believes that every person with a rare disease deserves clarity, hope, and access to the best possible care, and he works to make that a reality every day.

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